What Washington needs to know about the makeup of the next European Commission

This week, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced her proposed leadership team for the next five-year term of the European Union’s (EU’s) executive. In this line-up, Washington should see a willing and increasingly capable partner, especially when it comes to defense, economic security, and US-EU trade.

The announcement of the Commission’s incoming leaders—officially called the College of Commissioners—completes an important step in the EU’s leadership transition this year. But the process is far from over. Before the next Commission and its twenty-six commissioners (one per EU member, not including von der Leyen, who is Germany’s) officially take office this fall, commissioner-designates must pass muster at the European Parliament.

Like the US Senate’s grilling of cabinet secretary nominees, the European Parliament will conduct hearings. These hearings will be no rubber stamp. The European Parliament will likely reject one or more candidates as a display of the body’s institutional power, and some nominees—including Hungary’s commissioner-designate, slated for the health and animal welfare portfolio—are already seen as unlikely to get the nod of approval. However, the initial lineup already gives a good picture of von der Leyen’s vision for her second term.

Washington, focused on in its own upcoming leadership race in November, may be loath to tune in to the politicking in Brussels. But US policymakers should care. Like in Washington, personnel is policy, and the proposed makeup of the Commission provides an opening salvo for the bloc’s policy agenda and priorities. Moreover, whoever wins in November will need to pay attention to the direction of Brussels’ policy on the issues that will most deeply impact the United States and the transatlantic relationship.

There are three primary takeaways to note from von der Leyen’s proposed Commission.

First, the Commission is getting serious about its geopolitical and defense ambitions, and the Atlanticists are ascendent. Announced over the summer, Kaja Kallas—Estonia’s former prime minister, a noted Russia hawk, and an architect of some of the EU’s initiatives to arm Ukraine—will be the EU’s chief diplomat. Joining Kallas will be Lithuania’s former Prime Minister Andrius Kubilius, who will hold the inaugural post of commissioner for defense and space. He will build on the EU’s defense industrial strategy and will be responsible for overseeing the Commission’s efforts to ramp up defense production with EU funds. These efforts will cost money. The budgetary portfolio will fall under Poland’s Piotr Serafin, who will be responsible for navigating the EU’s upcoming negotiations for its next seven-year budget framework. In what promise to be tough negotiations among member states, the EU will have to prove that it can put its money where its mouth has been. The EU will need to find the political will and financial muscle to reallocate resources away from traditional areas, such as agriculture and regional funds, toward shoring up a fragile and insecure Europe amid a daunting geopolitical context, from defense-industrial capacity to emerging technologies, innovation, and competitiveness.

All three nominees are also unapologetic Atlanticists who value Washington’s engagement in Europe, and they are all in on supporting Ukraine. They come from member states historically oriented toward Washington and will likely continue to bring that philosophy to their new posts in Brussels. With Atlanticists in strong foreign policy and economic roles, Washington could see an EU eager to drive a more ambitious security and defense agenda, but one that includes—not excludes—the United States in that effort, especially in the financing of defense-industrial projects.

Second, several familiar faces are returning with top jobs in the next Commission. Valdis Dombrovskis, the current executive vice-president overseeing trade, will take on the economy and productivity portfolio. Maroš Šefčovič, another current executive vice-president currently responsible for the European Green Deal and interinstitutional relations, will lead the trade portfolio. Both will be critical interlocutors for Washington on issues of trade and industrial policy—areas to which both are already well attuned. Dombrovskis, for example, was a co-chair of the Trade and Technology Council and will surely play a role in US-EU negotiations under the next Commission. Even those who are new faces in the Commission are not newcomers to Washington. France’s nominee, Stéphane Séjourné, is Paris’s foreign minister. This experience will matter for discussions with Washington, especially on trade and industrial policy. Their nominations suggest von der Leyen is serious about her prioritization of a Clean Industrial Deal and her de-risking push.

Third, Washington will likely share many of the broad priorities for the next Commission, even if the devil remains in the details. The themes running throughout the reshuffled portfolios presented this week suggest convergence with where US policy is trending. There is a strong focus on economic security, defense, and protecting Europe’s key industries and technology leadership. The portfolios von der Leyen assigned and the Commission she set up suggest she is serious about moving the bloc closer to realizing the vision of a geopolitical Commission—even if much work remains to be done to achieve it. And Washington can find much to like about her priorities. Von der Leyen’s Commission is taking more ownership and responsibility for Europe’s own defense, a frequent topic of discussion and debate in Washington. Europe’s growing apprehension toward China, and a focus on greater competitiveness and innovation, will likely require greater collaboration with the United States.

Brussels will have to back up its personnel decisions with policy. But all indications from the reveal of the next College of Commissioners should make Washington consider the EU to be an increasingly cooperative and able partner.

James Batchik is an associate director at the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center.

Jörn Fleck is the senior director of the Europe Center.

Ian Cameron and Thomas Goldstein, young global professionals with the Europe Center, also contributed to this article.

Further reading

Image: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen arrives for a meeting of the Board of Commissioners in Brussels, Belgium, September 18, 2024. JOHN THYS/Pool via REUTERS